Mozambique’s elections on 15 October were once again won by FRELIMO.
When the results are put under scrutiny, however, they reveal the
longstanding opposition party RENAMO to have been the real winners,
bouncing back as Mozambiques strongest opposition party – a position
which was seen by many to be under threat from the newer MDM.
Having just experienced its fifth general election since the
establishment of a multiparty democratic system in 1992, Mozambique
voted for a president and elected members to the national and provincial
parliaments on 15 October 2014.
The ruling Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (Frelimo) was once again victorious in maintaining its stronghold on power since independence in 1975. The official preliminary results hand the presidency to FRELIMO’s first time candidate, Filipe Jacinto Nyusi, with 57,03%, followed by long-standing opposition candidate from Resistência Nacional de Moçambique (RENAMO), Afonso Dhlakama, with 36,68% and second time Movimento Democrático de Moçambique (MDM) presidential candidate, Daviz Mbepo Simango, coming in third with 6,36%. The parliamentary results indicated 57% for the ruling FRELIMO, followed by RENAMO with 34% and MDM with 19%. These results offered FRELIMO the possibility of keeping its parliamentary majority with 144 MP’s, followed by RENAMO with 89 and finally MDM with 17 out of a total of 250 seats. International and local observers were divided about the freedom, fairness and transparency of the electoral process and results.
While the overall official results hailed FRELIMO the victors, closer scrutiny reflects a different picture. The return of RENAMO to its undeniable position as the largest opposition party in Mozambique obfuscates the rapid advance of the MDM that had threatened RENAMO’s position prior to the national elections. These results also reveal the continuously declining popularity of the ruling FRELIMO most visibly expressed by the remarkable performance of MDM in the 2013 municipal elections.
THE CONTEXT, THE COMPETITORS AND THE COMPETITION
Despite regular annual economic growth of more than 7%, brought about by the end of sixteen years of civil war in 1992 and the macroeconomic reforms prior to and post the first democratic elections in 1994, the impact of FRELIMO’s efforts to tackle poverty, unemployment and bad governance remain insignificant [1]. Recent official government data indicate that 11.8 out of 21.5 million Mozambicans still live below the poverty line (MPD 2010) [2]. The United Nations (UNDP 2013) [3] Human Development Index, places Mozambique at 185 out of 187 countries and amongst the four countries on the African continent with the highest incidence of poverty in the world, only ahead of Niger and the Democratic Republic of Congo [4].
With a population growth rate of 2.8% and an estimated 300 000 new entrants into the labour market every year, Mozambique’s overall unemployment rate stands at 27%. The formal economy is largely urban in nature and accounts for only 32% of all employment [5]. In the rural areas, where 80% of the population lives, the advance of the extractive industry and large-scale land investments is bringing few but extremely well-paid employment opportunities amidst processes of resettlement and the fear of land grabs.
Armando Guebuza, the outgoing Mozambique’s president, was constitutionally blocked from serving another term in office after completing two consecutive terms of five years each. FRELIMO elected Filipe Jacinto Nyusi as its candidate. Nyusi, a 55 year old mechanical engineer, was born in the district of Mueda, Cabo Delgado Province and joined the party in 1973 at the age of fourteen. Before being elected by FRELIMO as its presidential candidate he served as Minister of Defence from 2008 to 2014. Very little is known about his character given his brief and indiscernible career in office. Nyusi’s political persona and aptitude for dealing with significant challenges is completely unknown. However, he appears more approachable than his predecessor who is generally perceived as being difficult. It is rumoured that FRELIMO’s intention by appointing Nyusi’s was to ensure that the control of Mozambique’s political and economic power was transferred to the non-southerners (Maconde tribe), an equal minority tribe, in tribute for the role they played during the struggle for the country’s independence (1964 - 1975). He is also perceived to have been chosen to protect Guebuza’s economic interests and those of his inner circle [6].
A new and an unknown candidate was not the only challenge FRELIMO faced prior to this election. Guebuza’s ten year term in office produced a substantial amount of antipathy amongst Mozambicans, especially urban residents. In terms of economic redistribution, with the advent of the extractive industry, Guebuza consolidated FRELIMO’s transition into a bourgeois right-wing party. After taking office in 2004, he expanded his financial control in business areas such as luxury goods, public works, communication, medical equipment, real estate and energy. His four children have all become hard-driving entrepreneurs to the extent that his 35 years old daughter Valentina Guebuza was nominated by the Forbes Magazine as the seventh most powerful young woman in Africa [7]. This is also notable with other FRELIMO state and government officials expanding and/or building new interests in the extractive industry [8]. Guebuza’s appetite for business has awarded him a local nickname ‘Gue – business’.
While publicly asking the ordinary Mozambicans to wait until they start benefiting from the country’s mineral bonanza, the party’s top officials are rapidly making their move to secure important shares of the mineral wealth [9]. The most widespread dissatisfaction about Guebuza’s and FRELIMO’s political and economic governance were manifested in three consecutive riots (5th February 2008 against fuel and transport prices and on 1st and 2nd September 2010) which took place in urban municipalities [10]. This general dissatisfaction found further expression in the results of the 2013 Municipal elections which (in terms of controlling strategic urban municipalities) confined FRELIMO to the capital city of Maputo and the industrial municipality of Matola. Ler +
The ruling Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (Frelimo) was once again victorious in maintaining its stronghold on power since independence in 1975. The official preliminary results hand the presidency to FRELIMO’s first time candidate, Filipe Jacinto Nyusi, with 57,03%, followed by long-standing opposition candidate from Resistência Nacional de Moçambique (RENAMO), Afonso Dhlakama, with 36,68% and second time Movimento Democrático de Moçambique (MDM) presidential candidate, Daviz Mbepo Simango, coming in third with 6,36%. The parliamentary results indicated 57% for the ruling FRELIMO, followed by RENAMO with 34% and MDM with 19%. These results offered FRELIMO the possibility of keeping its parliamentary majority with 144 MP’s, followed by RENAMO with 89 and finally MDM with 17 out of a total of 250 seats. International and local observers were divided about the freedom, fairness and transparency of the electoral process and results.
While the overall official results hailed FRELIMO the victors, closer scrutiny reflects a different picture. The return of RENAMO to its undeniable position as the largest opposition party in Mozambique obfuscates the rapid advance of the MDM that had threatened RENAMO’s position prior to the national elections. These results also reveal the continuously declining popularity of the ruling FRELIMO most visibly expressed by the remarkable performance of MDM in the 2013 municipal elections.
THE CONTEXT, THE COMPETITORS AND THE COMPETITION
Despite regular annual economic growth of more than 7%, brought about by the end of sixteen years of civil war in 1992 and the macroeconomic reforms prior to and post the first democratic elections in 1994, the impact of FRELIMO’s efforts to tackle poverty, unemployment and bad governance remain insignificant [1]. Recent official government data indicate that 11.8 out of 21.5 million Mozambicans still live below the poverty line (MPD 2010) [2]. The United Nations (UNDP 2013) [3] Human Development Index, places Mozambique at 185 out of 187 countries and amongst the four countries on the African continent with the highest incidence of poverty in the world, only ahead of Niger and the Democratic Republic of Congo [4].
With a population growth rate of 2.8% and an estimated 300 000 new entrants into the labour market every year, Mozambique’s overall unemployment rate stands at 27%. The formal economy is largely urban in nature and accounts for only 32% of all employment [5]. In the rural areas, where 80% of the population lives, the advance of the extractive industry and large-scale land investments is bringing few but extremely well-paid employment opportunities amidst processes of resettlement and the fear of land grabs.
Armando Guebuza, the outgoing Mozambique’s president, was constitutionally blocked from serving another term in office after completing two consecutive terms of five years each. FRELIMO elected Filipe Jacinto Nyusi as its candidate. Nyusi, a 55 year old mechanical engineer, was born in the district of Mueda, Cabo Delgado Province and joined the party in 1973 at the age of fourteen. Before being elected by FRELIMO as its presidential candidate he served as Minister of Defence from 2008 to 2014. Very little is known about his character given his brief and indiscernible career in office. Nyusi’s political persona and aptitude for dealing with significant challenges is completely unknown. However, he appears more approachable than his predecessor who is generally perceived as being difficult. It is rumoured that FRELIMO’s intention by appointing Nyusi’s was to ensure that the control of Mozambique’s political and economic power was transferred to the non-southerners (Maconde tribe), an equal minority tribe, in tribute for the role they played during the struggle for the country’s independence (1964 - 1975). He is also perceived to have been chosen to protect Guebuza’s economic interests and those of his inner circle [6].
A new and an unknown candidate was not the only challenge FRELIMO faced prior to this election. Guebuza’s ten year term in office produced a substantial amount of antipathy amongst Mozambicans, especially urban residents. In terms of economic redistribution, with the advent of the extractive industry, Guebuza consolidated FRELIMO’s transition into a bourgeois right-wing party. After taking office in 2004, he expanded his financial control in business areas such as luxury goods, public works, communication, medical equipment, real estate and energy. His four children have all become hard-driving entrepreneurs to the extent that his 35 years old daughter Valentina Guebuza was nominated by the Forbes Magazine as the seventh most powerful young woman in Africa [7]. This is also notable with other FRELIMO state and government officials expanding and/or building new interests in the extractive industry [8]. Guebuza’s appetite for business has awarded him a local nickname ‘Gue – business’.
While publicly asking the ordinary Mozambicans to wait until they start benefiting from the country’s mineral bonanza, the party’s top officials are rapidly making their move to secure important shares of the mineral wealth [9]. The most widespread dissatisfaction about Guebuza’s and FRELIMO’s political and economic governance were manifested in three consecutive riots (5th February 2008 against fuel and transport prices and on 1st and 2nd September 2010) which took place in urban municipalities [10]. This general dissatisfaction found further expression in the results of the 2013 Municipal elections which (in terms of controlling strategic urban municipalities) confined FRELIMO to the capital city of Maputo and the industrial municipality of Matola. Ler +
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